I spent much of my adult life pretending Republicans were going to do well in Congressional elections every two years.
I was wrong for many of them but, like waking every morning and saying “It’s going to rain today,” sooner or later you’ll be correct.
I was correct in 1994 when the “Gingrich Revolution” as it was later called, bore fruit and for the first time in 40 years – FORTY YEARS – the GOP took control of the House of Representatives.
Now, 28 years later, the popular notion that the party in opposition to the President – any President – will do very well in the Administrant’s first midterm election.
So, it has been an article of faith that the GOP will take control of the U.S. House when it convenes the first week of January, 2023.
I still believe that to be the case if only because of the politically-driven district lines that Republican state legislatures have drawn since the 2020 census.
Before you hit the “SEND” key, I understand that back in the days when Democrats controlled the vast majority of state legislatures, they drew lines that were so egregious that Federal legislation was adopted that required the Department of Justice to approve most changes effecting who could vote and where they could do it.
Lord Acton’s caution still holds: ”Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
There are more elections on November 8th than the 435 voting members of the House. Thirty four U.S. Senate seats are up for grabs as well as 36 Governors’ offices.
The phrase of art that commentators are all pretending to have been the first to utter (or write) is a “red wave” threatening to wash over the political landscape like an Indian Ocean tsunami.
Nothing in politics is permanent. Most things in politics never existed in the first place. The continuing current of good legislative news for President Joe Biden is helpful.
As Jonathan Chait wrote in the Intelligencer.com:
“Signing a domestic legacy bill won’t make Biden any younger or better at reading from a teleprompter, but it will make Democrats less freaked out about how old he looks and sounds and will reduce the stream of news stories about his frailty to a slow trickle.”
Republicans who have been doing the Ren & Stimpy “Happy, Happy, Joy, Joy” dance might want to waltz over to the punch and cookie table.
The Wall Street Journal editorial board – never mistaken for the editors at The Atlantic, or the Rolling Stone wrote recently:
“With November’s midterms still three months away, the predicted red wave may be breaking far from the electoral shore.”
Will lower gasoline prices and Medicare being able to negotiate many drug prices preserve Democrats’ control of the U.S. House? History tells us that is unlikely.
But, it also means that those U.S. Senate and Governors’ races might be more competitive than they looked like they were going to be a month or so ago.
It means other statewide races – like those for Secretary of State who are typically in charge of certifying election results – might be harder fought than the political oceanographers at the Republican National Committee might have been charting.
Liz Cheney lost her primary race by a tsunami-like 66-29 percent. That’s the good news for Trumpists. The bad news is that race was never in doubt, so it didn’t have the political zetz of losing a close, tough race.
Old news is no news.
Trump’s largely good results in picking primary candidates will, if Dems have anything to say about it, work against him in the Fall. Dr. Oz’s bone headed release of his crudité commercial is the best example of the week..
A poll completed by Pittsburg Works that was published recently has Democrat John Fetterman leading Oz by a commanding 51-33 margin. The poll was conducted by the respected Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies.
Note: In an earlier version of this MULLINGS I mistakenly wrote that Pittsburg Works was a PAC supporting Fetterman. This is not the case and I regret the error.
Oz is being heavily supported by Trump.
That race is to fill the seat being left vacant by retiring Republican Pat Toomey. If Fetterman goes on to win, that’s a Democrat pick-up in a U.S. Senate that is currently 50-50.
There is no “blue wave” now, or on the horizon. But, the promised “red wave” may turn out to be nothing more than an historical (not historic) tidal change.
See you next week.